If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation. Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services. We develop a small-scale dynamic factor model for the Swiss economy based on an appropriately selected set of indicators.
The resulting business cycle factor is in striking accordance with historical Swiss business cycle fluctuations.
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Our proposed model demonstrates a remarkable performance in short-term and medium-term forecasting. Using real-time GDP data since , the model successfully anticipates the downturn of and responds in a timely manner to the recent sudden drop following the removal of the Swiss Franc lower bound. In a Markov-switching extension, we propose that our model could be used for Swiss recession dating. Our model does not indicate a regime-switch following the removal of the Swiss Franc lower bound.
Download full text from publisher File URL: Corrections All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. Help us Corrections Found an error or omission? RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers. Currently, India relies mostly on individual studies for the dating of business cycles.
Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee
The Reserve Bank of India RBI set up a working group of economic indicators in and a technical advisory group TAG on the development of leading indicators for the Indian economy in , both under the chairmanship of R. The working group proposed a standing committee for business cycle analysis. Its job was the same as a BCDC, i.
TAG suggested a methodological framework for the construction of coincident, leading and lagging indicators along with a composite index for the Indian economy. It also reviewed different techniques adopted by various international organizations.
Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee | Centre for Economic Policy Research
Notably, the members of all the aforementioned BCDCs are independent scholars. As a result, the decision regarding the dating of business cycles is not political. This is important in a country like India where GDP numbers are contentious and political parties try to score points on these numbers.
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- Business Cycle Dating and Forecasting with Real-time Swiss GDP Data.
Also, the BCDCs are created by independent non-profit organizations. This responsibility does not lie with the government or with the central bank. Still, creating a BCDC will go a long way in maintaining transparency, strengthening the information base for the Indian economy and helping gauge better the changing nature of the Indian economy.
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This will also help India to be more in synchronization with the other developed and emerging market economies. Mayank Gupta is a research scholar at the department of economics autonomous , University of Mumbai. Mon, Mar 20 A BCDC analyses and compares the behaviour of key macroeconomic variables such as consumption, investment, unemployment, money supply, inflation, stock prices, etc.
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What are business cycles? Sun, Mar 19 GDP growth business cycle Indian economy employment industry. Small loans give big pain as farm, mortgages lift delinquencies 1 step forward, 2 steps back.